Some thoughts on the Greensboro city council
primary election results.
1. Low minority turnout
Turnout in the predominantly black districts one and two was very low. In district one, the 1,376 voters were nearly 25% fewer than the number who voted in the 2007 primary; and in district two there were only 1,115 voters (there was no D2 primary in 2007). Districts one, two, three and four all had competitive primaries, but in predominately white districts three and four there were 3,457 and 3,318 voters respectively. Which leads to...
2. A new mayor?
Mayor Johnson will have a real challenge to her reelection. In 2007, the year she was elected as mayor, Johnson won by getting a majority in district four. Without it, she would have lost to barely-visible Miltion Kern.
Three factors could give Johnson trouble in November: If interest remains low in districts one and two; If Mary Rakestraw's supporters, more likely aligned with fellow Republican and mayoral challenger Bill Knight, turn out big and diminish or eliminate Johnson's 2007 district four majority; and if new voters from Knight's home turf of The Cardinal*, voting in a Greensboro municipal election for the fist time this year, turn out in significant numbers.
3. Squeaky close at-large race
We've got a good old fashion horse race in the at-large race. The second and sixth place at-large finishers were separated by a mere 493 votes out of 29,153, or only 1.7% of the total votes cast. (Compare to a nearly 1,700 vote spread in 2007, when even fewer votes were cast).
4. Mayor Pro-tem Vaughan?
I suspect Nancy Vaughan is too smart to take anything for granted, but finishing first by getting a vote from one out of every two voters is a good indication of strong popularity. Of course, Mary Rakestraw did nearly the same thing in 2007 and ended up coming in third in the general election. We'll see.
5. Win some, lose some
For what it's worth, I cast three votes in the at-large race and one of my choices did not finish in the top six. I'll send that person a private thank you, but really, all the candidates who did not make it through the primary deserve a heartfelt thank you for their time and effort and for giving us a real variety of options.
*
UPDATE: Alert reader "N" notes that, while Bill Knight is president of the Cardinal Golf & Country Club, he actually lives in Sunset Hills in district four.