Tuesday, December 29, 2009

What do I know?

I am not an expert and they say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but doesn't it look like the US stock markets are set for a plunge in January? Doesn't the historical price to earning ratio alone suggest a correction?

4 comments:

  1. Want to review your previous prediction?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I thought of you as I wrote this, Tom -- careful to make this one a question. But sure, while I missed the September/October target, is S&P 480 still out of the question? Is this a huge suckers' rally?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Price to Earnings Ratio you quote is a ten year average.

    Last comparable number S&P published was 138, and then stopped reporting it.

    Tom can confirm.

    Valuation has nothing to do with it at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks, anonymous. I wondered why some seeming experts are reporting the S&P's P/E as 88.

    I understand enough to know that the PE can be brought back to historical norms by a growth in earnings, but that doesn't seem likely any time soon.

    ReplyDelete

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