I read this last night in a book given to me by my sister in-law. I think it goes a long way towards explaining the thinking of the pragmatic moderate, at least this one:
"Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event."Indeed, I think that's a wise way to think about public policy. As the author adds:
"Any decision relating to risk involves two distinct and yet inseparable elements: the objective facts and the subjective view about the desirability of what is to be gained, or lost, by the decision. [O]nly the pathologically risk-averse make choices based on the consequences without regard to the probability involved. [O]nly the foolhardy make choices based on the probability of an outcome without regard to its consequences.
Bernstein, Peter L. Against the Gods, the Remarkable Story of Risk
1 comments:
Damage x probability is Risk Management 101. My dad, who was in the insurance biz, taught me that when I was in junior high.
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