It occurred to me that in my previous handicapping of the at-large Greensboro city council race, I ignored an obvious tool at my disposal--one that ads to the knowledge of "buzz." By using the search function of the main page of Greensboro101, I can see the number of times a candidate's name appears in a blog or news story in the past week. Armed with that additional data, here are my current predictions for the order of finish for the October 6th primary.
1. Nancy Vaughan
2. MariKay AbuZuaiter
3. Robbie Perkins
4. DJ Hardy +1
5. Ryan Shell +1
6. Julie Lapham -2
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7. Sandra Anderson-Groat
8. Danny Thompson
9. Jorge Cornell +1
10 Gary Nixon -1
11. Max Benbasst
I agree with a lot of what you're guessing and don't pretend to understand the + and - thing but I just learned what brackets were (basketball) this year. I think Sandra Anderson-Groat will finish in the top 6. It's DJ Hardy that I would but in the bottom section but it's mostly because I've never heard of him, which means that when & where he talks, I'm not there. Don't interpret this comment as supporting a particular candidate. Just working from name recognition and hopefulness.
ReplyDeleteI think SAG places higher than you have her.
ReplyDeleteThe plus and minus thing is the change in position from the previous ranking.
ReplyDeleteI think the "cusp" is the hardest group to guess about. Likely top three and likely bottom three are easier. Spots 4 through 8 will be the most competitive, I suspect. How's that for a margin of error?
Interesting ranking.
ReplyDeleteI would possibly move Cornell up. I think he is going to surprise some people. He might not make it through to the general, but I would rank him higher than 9.
DJ is an enigima. As a black woman I haven't a clue where his votes will come from. I haven't heard a buzz about him in the (black)community. There is more of a buzz about Cornell than DJ.
I had a chance to meet DJ and he seems to be a nice young man. But, he lacks a little charisma and personality. That could prove fatal in a low voter turnout. I actually wonder if this is a way to get his name out there for the next election cycle in two years.
In trying to be objective, one must resist extrapolating one's neighborhood experience to the entire city.
ReplyDeleteMaybe DJ is creating a buzz in the majority community. Seems like you know something I don't.
ReplyDeleteI just know that Mayor Johnson wasn't able to win at-large so many times without the AA community behind her. Since the field is so crowded, it would be a great opportunity for DJ to get the community (not neighborhood)behind him to get him over the finish line.
When I ask people if they are voting for DJ, they say, "D who?" I tell them the black guy who worked on Obama's campaign, then they wonder why they haven't seen or heard of him. They have heard of ryan, Jorge and Julie (thx to Mayor Johnson)but not DJ.
I believe he in lives in the Bluford area and they have the largest black voter turnout in GSO. Maybe Bluford will get him there. Running for D1 would have probably been a better fit for him.