Handicapping the city council races

GREENSBORO, NC --Applying what I think I know about primary voters in municipal elections, I ranked the candidates by my estimation of their popuarity among Democratic voters, Republican voters and unaffiliated voters, adjusted for expected turnout among those groups and came up with the following predictions for each candidate making it through the primary.

These are not the percentage of votes I predict a candidate will receive, but the likelihood that a candidate will clear the primary. A candidate at 50%, for example, has a 50/50 chance of making it through the primary. (One can also see the expected order of finish. Candidates not listed were considered by me to be insufficiently possible to include in the mix.) These are not my preferences or endorsements, just dispassionate predictions.

Learn about the candidates here: www.GreensboroCouncilCandidates.com

MAYOR

Robbie Perkins: 64%
Tom Phillips: 53%
Bill Knight: 47%
Bradford Cone: 6%

AT-LARGE

Nancy Vaughan: 91%
Cyndy Hayworth: 81%
Chris Lawyer: 81%
Marikay Abuzuaiter: 76%
Danny Thompson: 55%
Wayne Abraham: 50%
Yvonne Johnson: 50%
Jean Brown: 30%
Sal Leone: 19%
Hayden Jesserer: 6%

D4

Mary Rakestraw: 60%
Nancy Hoffman: 54%
Tony Collins: 39%

Other races have no primary or are not competitive.