Roch: I'll go with three predictions. One is the easy cruise for Obama, winning 318-220, taking Va. and Fla., but not NC or Ohio.
In my second scenario, Obama loses his usual 4 percentage points on election day and McCain takes Va and Fla. In an additional stunner, independents in Colorado break heavy for McCain, leaving us in an historic 269-269 tie.
In my third scenario, Colorado stays with Obama, but record turnout in Philadelphia is exceeded by an overwhelming independent surge toward McCain in the rural and western part of the state. Helped by sportsmen and a fear of the loss of secret ballot in union votes, a large segment blue collar Democrats in Pa. break for McCain, putting him over the top by less than one percent.
That puts McCain over the top 281-257.
If I had to bet the house, I'd say Obama breaks 315.
Roch: I'll go with three predictions. One is the easy cruise for Obama, winning 318-220, taking Va. and Fla., but not NC or Ohio.
ReplyDeleteIn my second scenario, Obama loses his usual 4 percentage points on election day and McCain takes Va and Fla. In an additional stunner, independents in Colorado break heavy for McCain, leaving us in an historic 269-269 tie.
In my third scenario, Colorado stays with Obama, but record turnout in Philadelphia is exceeded by an overwhelming independent surge toward McCain in the rural and western part of the state. Helped by sportsmen and a fear of the loss of secret ballot in union votes, a large segment blue collar Democrats in Pa. break for McCain, putting him over the top by less than one percent.
That puts McCain over the top 281-257.
If I had to bet the house, I'd say Obama breaks 315.
All of my election predictions can be found here:
ReplyDeletehttp://gedblog.com/2008/10/23/my-election-predictions/
Should be fun!