Obama 58%?

I spent a little time last night looking at North Carolina voter demographics, new registrations, early voting turnout and historical voting patterns. Then I ran some "what-if" scenarios, making assumptions about how the vote might break down tomorrow. I came up with Obama winning 52% to 62% of the vote, with 56% - 58% coming up most often.

TV pundits are speculating this morning that the Clinton's strong presence in the state today might portend an upset. The only way that happens is if Obama gets less than 33% of the white vote or less than 70% of the black vote.