My updated expected order of finish for the Greensboro city council at-large race. Determined by an informal assessment of positive name-recognition, money raised, yard-sign distribution, buzz, my understanding of the Greensboro electorate and expected voter turnout. Numbers in green (up) and red (down) indicate the candidate's change in position, if any, since the last prediction.
1. MariKay AbuZuaiter +1
2. Nancy Vaughan -1
3. Robbie Perkins
4. Danny Thompson +4
5. Sandra Anderson-Groat +2
6. DJ Hardy -1
7. Julie Lapham -1
8. Gary Nixon +2
9. Ryan Shell -4
10. Jorge Cornell -1
11. Max Benbassat
Shell is -4? Marikay is #1? Vaughan -1? Perkins stays the same? Thompson jumps up 4 spots? I disagree, Kind sir.
ReplyDeleteShell is out fighting everyday. I see him making the cut by having the 5 or 6 spot. Perkins should have fallen. His pro Mitch speech has left some holding their noes. He will be in the 4-5 spot. Marikay comes up in the 3-4 spot. Vaughan will dominate the 1 spot. Groat comes in at a respectable 2-3 spot. The dark horse is Danny and DJ. They could squeeze themselves into the general election.
Vaughan
Groat
Marikay
Perkins
Shell
Thompson & DJ toss up.
Honorable mention is Jorge Cornlell and Julie Lampham
nose. not noes. Sorry :)
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment. Of course anything is possible. Perkins is tricky. He seems to be holding his fire, but he has massive name recognition. I came within a hair of moving him down a notch but I could not justify any of the other candidates in the third spot.
What concerns me about Anderson-Groat are indications that she has not raised any money and that I see her yard signs almost exclusively on right of ways. Signs in peoples' yards are an indication of voter support. Signs on right of ways is an indication of an avid supporter with some time on his hands.
Shell gets a hit this week for his negative press in the Rhino. Thompson his rise because of his preponderance of signage (in yards and across the city).
This week we will be looking for endorsements which could affect things.
Check out my predictions Roch...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.busybeingbornblog.com/?p=378
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Danny will get a bump due to the TV ads he will start running tomorrow. 18 spots, just under $1,000 worth. Hasn't filed a campaign finance report yet. He has to be at, or very close to that $3,000 mark.
ReplyDeleteOh, and too bad canvassing efforts don't go in to your measurements.
Ryan
Oh, and one more thing. Anon - there was NO pro Mitch speech. I'm not really sure where that is coming from.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Ryan. Canvassing is one of those things that could be an under-the-radar surprise.
ReplyDelete