Monday, November 05, 2012

Election predictions

My predictions for the 2012 general election.

Presidential popular vote
Obama: 50.15%
Romney: 48.75%

Electoral College
Obama: 318
Romney: 220



Senate change
Republicans: +1

House of Representatives change
Democrats: +4

North Carolina presidential
Obama by 40,000 votes.

3 comments:

  1. I think you may be spot on everywhere but NC. I know too many reasonable people who have changed their votes from 08.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The polling agrees with you on North Carolina. The Real Clear Politics average of the latest polls for the state stands at Romney +3, but I'm seeing first hand what the Obama campaign is doing with their get out the vote effort and I think it's going to turn out those who pollsters do not regard as likely voters.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It requires some courage to make predictions. Being correct gives little personal gain, being wrong diminishes credibility. So thanks for being bold with your straight forward presentation.
    There are differing predictions. It will be interesting.
    http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction-dick-morris-tv-special-election-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

    ReplyDelete

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